Should we be optimistic or pessimistic about the OECD’s projections for the UK economy?

According to the OECD, the UK economy is set to grow at a pace which is much lower than that of any other member of the G20. It predicts that UK economic growth will be at 1.3%, which is far behind the global projection of 3.9% for the upcoming two years.

Looking at the data, it tells us that the UK is facing a squeeze on its economic potential. In fact, the 2019 prediction from the OECD ranks the UK far down the list at a rate of only 1.06%.

Comparing this to Germany which is projected 1.9% and the US at 2.15%, it can clearly be said that there is great uncertainty within the UK economy. Only Japan is projected a lower rate than the UK out of all G20 members at a rate of only 0.96%.

Should we be worried?

Well, there is cause for concern as the projections appear lower than what current rates are. Factors like inflation and Brexit come to mind when discussing the potential economic productivity of the UK in the future. After all, the outcome of Brexit could heavily swing the projections in either direction.

What any article fails to mention, however, is that nearly all the G20 members are projected a decrease in GDP growth for 2019, with most looking set for a decrease around 0.1-0.5%. Though India appears to be an exception from this trend as it continues its huge rate of growth around the 7% level.

Therefore, it is easy to be rather pessimistic about the projections of UK’s economy when comparing it to other G20 members. However, the data is all but a ‘projection’, if we took this data without questioning what a single political event could change economically, then we would all be very foolish.

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